A blog about personal views on few topics, small fictions, micro stories, poems, etc.
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A snapshot of Indian situation pertaining to outbreak of pandemic Covid-19. Brief view of numbers of various states/ UTs.
It has been almost 5 months that our Country is dealing with this pandemic. However, offlate the growth in Covid positive cases have been significant, and sometimes looking at the numbers might be a bit too scary! Nevertheless, a known devil is always better than an unknown angel! So, I have tried to jot down few basic parameters that I have been keeping a tab on. The numbers used are based on the data available on https://www.covid19india.org/
Basic figures that are being tracked by multiple agencies include number of tests, confirmed covid positive cases, active cases, recovered cases, and fatalities.
Then, based on these numbers, other data which is being tracked include:
So first let’s start with a basic view of these trackers.
1. Number of Tests: Growth in number of tests being done on a weekly basis in the country has consistently been more than 18% since April-2020. The growth in number of tests was much higher during the earlier days owing to less number of tests! However, in regards with growth in number of tests, July recorded minimal growth. For entire July growth in tests was about 18-19% on a weekly basis, which has already increased to about 22% in August! A comparative view of growth rate of few states/ UTs is provided below:
However, it is worth noting, that test growth rate of Pune, Chennai, Thane and Bangalore are also at 28%, 25%, 24% and 22% as on 08/08/2020.
2. Confirmed Cases: Confirmed cases in India have grown at a much higher rate. Minimum growth rate observed in past 16 weeks was 23% and that too in the week ended on 08/08/2020! Although, growth rate of confirmed cases has reduced to 23% from as high as 52% in second week of May, but it still is not a reason to rejoice given the fact that we are already sitting at a huge number of 21.57 lakh cases, which implies that even a meagre growth of 10% would mean more than 2 lakh new cases per week! Further, another reason for concern is that the growth rate in testing is still lower than growth rate of Confirmed cases. Crudely put, the Covid-19 virus is still outrunning our efforts to contain it!Minimum and maximum CAGRs witnessed by few states in last 4 weeks along with India’s CAGR are detailed below:
Sad thing to notice here is that, now the virus is spreading quite rapidly in non metro areas as well!
3. Confirmed Ratio: There is a dual significance of this ratio. First, lower ratio implies that number of tests being conducted are effectively capturing the actual outbreak in the region. Secondly, a decline in ratio over time signifies improvement either in restricting the outbreak or in accelerating the testing efforts.
The ratio has been continuously deteriorating for the Country. The ratio was at a minimum of almost 3.82% in May starting, which has now deteriorated to 8.95% as on 08/08/2020!
5 states with highest (worst) confirmed ratio as on August 08, 2020 vis-à-vis worst position witnessed by them is detailed below:
Except Puducherry and Karnataka, all these states/UTs have started witnessing decline in the ratio.
States which have managed to contain the confirmed ratio to upto 3% are Arunachal Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Sikkhim, Rajasthan, Tripura, Chhattisgarh, Kerala, Jammu & Kashmir, and Punjab! Out of these states, except Meghalaya, Mizoram and Sikkim, all states have conducted more than 1 lakh tests!
States/ UTs which are already past their worst confirmed ratio as on 08.08.2020 are Maharashtra, Telangana, Delhi, Bihar, Ladakh, Gujarat, Assam, Madhya Pradesh, Punjab, and Mizoram.
Among worst hit cities, a view of Confirmed ratio as on 08/08/2020 vis-à-vis their worst confirmed ratios since 18/07/2020 are detailed below:
4. Active Cases: In India, total active cases have been growing at an average growth rate of 26%, which has reduced to about 11% in last week ended 08.08.2020! Thankfully, growth rate of active cases has been negative for Jammu & Kashmir, Tamil Nadu, Dadar & Nagar Haveli and Daman & Diu, Arunachal Pradesh, Maharashtra and Meghalaya! Further, among the cities most infected by the virus, Mumbai, Thane and Chennai, all have witnessed negative growth rate in last three weeks! Worst (maximum) growth has been observed in the states of Andaman & Nicobar, Assam, Manipur, Nagaland, Mizoram and Bihar! Top 5 active states with highest cases are still Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu & Uttar Pradesh.
5. Active Ratio: This ratio depicts active cases as on date vis-à-vis cumulative confirmed cases till date. Personally, I feel, only significance of the ratio is to depict the level of outbreak as on date. Higher the ratio, it depicts that Covid outbreak in the state is quite recent, however, lower active ratio might be on account of high recovery ratio or high mortality ratio. States having Active ratio of more than 50% as on 08/08/2020 are Nagaland, Andaman & Nicobar, Meghalaya, Jharkhand, Sikkim, and Mizoram depicting that the outbreak in these states is quite recent! Among these states, Andaman & Nicobar, Nagaland, and Jharkhand have among the highest growth rates in confirmed cases as detailed above.
6. Recovered Ratio: Total recovery ratio for the country has increased to 69%. Top-6 and Bottom-6 states/ UTs in this aspect are highlighted below:
Among the worst affected cities, Chennai’s Recovery ratio is most promising (after Delhi) as on date at 87%, followed by Mumbai (78%) and Thane (75%). Lower recovery ratio is almost in line with higher Active Ratio!
7. Mortality Ratio: World average of Mortality ratio due to Covid 19 stands at about 3.70%, which, for India is 2.02%. Highest mortality ratio for India was on May 05, 2020 at 3.43%. Significant decline in this ratio can be attributed to constant efforts of healthcare workers. Another significant reason could be outbreak of Covid-19 in non metro areas, where people are presumed to have better immunity as compared to people in metro cities. States having mortality ratio higher than country average are detailed below:
Mortality rates in Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, and Andhra Pradesh, which are among 5 most infected states along with Maharashtra and Delhi, are significantly lower at 1.80%, 1.65%, and 0.89% respectively. Mortality ratios have been continually declining on a weekly basis for past 7 weeks for the states of Delhi, Gujarat, Haryana, Kerala, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Telangana, Uttar Pradesh, and West Bengal.
On the contrary, mortality ratios have worsened in last 4 weeks for the states of Jammu & Kashmir, Puducherry, Andaman & Nicobar, Goa, Chhattisgarh, Tripura &Ladakh.
These are the basic numbers which are generally being used to track the outbreak of pandemic in the country. A trend which can be made out from this data can be summarized as:
There are still a large number of parameters, which when considered might give an entirely different view, since some of the assumptions in above analysis include an even outbreak in entire state. Further, based on the numbers/ ratios discussed above, it is still a bit difficult to do a predictive analysis, however, I will try to work on a predictive analysis in my next post.
Ever wondered what other living creatures are going through at this time?
While we were busy dealing with our trivial issues, somewhere few communities were brainstorming about sudden changes of their ecosystem! I was able to lay hands on few of the meeting agendas!
I will try to find out about more of such meetings. Stay tuned for more such updates!
Covid-19 has potential to trigger a tsunami of changes which might actually be a revolution in itself!
“Rivet” was a simple solution by Adolf Hitler for reducing weight of his ships to carry more men and ammunition during World War! Similarly, T-shirt was designed by “The Copper Underwear Company” targeting Bachelors, since inherent problem with shirts was ripping of buttons and stitching & sewing was considered work of fairer sex! These are just two examples of innovations done by us, to simplify our lives! I am sure there are numerous such examples!
T-shirts or rivets were designed to help just a few people and still had such a huge impact going forward! However, Covid-19 has impacted not just an organization, community or country, but entire world! Along with battling the virus, people around the globe are trying their best to function even when their entire social and professional ecosystems have gone for a toss! This pandemic has catalyzed innovation processes by organizations as well as individuals!
Some of these changes might be temporary; however few of them will change in entirety the way we have been living (not just working)! Although it’s difficult to make an exhaustive list of such changes, but few of them are mentioned below!
As 21-90 rule states, it takes a commitment of 21 days for us to make a habit and 90 days to accept it as our lifestyle; so, let us see what sort of habits, lifestyles and innovations we emerge with as we overcome this Corona crisis!
The post is about a Banker's view of what challenges the country might face in near future and possible ways to start preparing for them!
“Survival of the fittest”
“Tough times don’t last, tough people do”
These quotes highlight the importance of physical, mental and emotional strength for individuals. But, the same applies, not just to individuals, but also to entire societies or nations as well. The same is quite evident right now, at a time when all the nations across the World are trying to survive Covid-19!
Today, every country is a War Zone, fighting its own war against the common enemy. During a war; everything counts, be it strength and capabilities of soldiers, their preparedness, or available resources. Our soldiers fighting against Covid-19 are doing a brilliant job, even though they didn’t get much time to prepare for it! Ask any of them and everyone will unanimously say, if they had sufficient warning or time to prepare, they could have performed even better!
This war also requires large amount of resources. Channelization of such resources along with a shutdown of entire country is more than sufficient to cause a significant blow to the economy, and this concern is clearly reflected in one of the tweets of US President where he said “We cannot let the cure be worse than the problem”. Although, as of now there is no end date to Corona crisis, but, whenever it is, we already have another war at hand! “A war to revive our economy! War 2.0!”
Soldiers of ongoing war are doctors, health workers, sanitary workers, law enforcement agencies, etc. Although, Bankers are also a part of “Essential Services” and it is imperative that Bankers ensure smooth delivery of financial products in these testing times, but we are still on the backstage right now. However, there is no doubt that Banks, Financial Institutions and Various Industries will have to move to front in forthcoming war!
Unlike the brave hearts busy in saving the Country right now, we bankers are comparatively lucky in two aspects. Firstly, we do know about the looming crisis. And secondly, Corona Crisis, has given us sufficient time to prepare. Most of the businesses are in shutdown mode, Exports and Imports have rock bottomed, and Individual spending has reduced to bare minimum resulting insignificant decline in financial activity throughout the country.
For War 2.0, we are at a stage where we need to ensure foolproof planning and optimization of resources! So, if we talk in terms of Risk Management, we already have identified the risk! Next step will be Risk Mitigation. Ofcourse we can’t mitigate all possible risks, but we can try to minimize the adversities! Finance Ministry, RBI, and all the Banks are already on the job. Various policy decisions such as moratorium of 3 months, deferment of interest payments, relaxation of working capital norms, etc are part of such risk minimization steps! Some of the Banks have even gone one step ahead and offered temporary credit lines to various businesses to help them absorb this financial setback!
Despite all the precautionary measures, our country’s growth rate will be significantly reduced. As per latest forecast by Fitch, the growth rate is estimated to fall back to 2%, i.e. the lowest in last 30 years! So, yes…we still have a big problem to solve!
All these policy decisions and financial products are just like Artillery firing, providing some cover to soldiers before the actual war begins! But then, the war is inevitable! So the next step should be to ensure that the soldiers of this economic war are at the best of their strength and capabilities and are well equipped when it begins! There can be multiple ways to ensure that!
Currently there is a sense of uncertainty among all the Corporates, hence this is the best time to collaborate with them and chalk out a rescue mission! It might be a good idea to discuss with Companies in various segments and Industries, and understand the support they seek from their Financial Partners! Ofcourse ‘Demand’ levels can’t be restored overnight, but minimization of bottlenecks can be ensured!
After policy development and Corporate Collaborations, third thing which might contribute significantly in preparations is skill development of employees! Almost all the banks as of now have their e-learning platforms in place and right now, and when the financial transactions are at all time low, Banks can focus on this aspect. Afterall we need each and every one of us to be well prepared, since, as quoted by Benjamin Franklin, “By failing to prepare, you are preparing to fail”, and that, we can’t afford!
Bankers have always been front runners in implementing various schemes launched by Government from time to time. And I am sure, entire Banking fraternity is geared up to help the nation sail through these tough times as well. Hence, at times like these, when we are already in Community Spread stage of Covid-19 transmission, we need to exercise maximum possible caution in order to ensure that Banking operations are not impacted/shutdown. This makes it all the more important for Banks to deploy their Business Continuity Plans and ensure optimum operations with minimum employees, so as to ensure maximum strength of employees at time when Banks will have to function on full throttle! Further, minimizing the daily movement of 15 lakh bank officials (if not more), will also help in improving effectiveness of lockdown!
To summarize, we are well aware of the brewing economic crisis that Country is going to face! I think we still have ample time to strategize, prepare and implement our action plans. And four things which might prove helpful to Banks in the same are:
Afterall, right now entire country is Banking on doctors, law enforcement agencies, and others; and then when the time comes, and country looks towards Banks, we need to stand strong and fight this War 2.0 for the nation!
Travelling alone from Jabalpur to Rajkot, which is 28 hour ride by train, and that too when your ticket is under RAC (you only have half of the seat) definitely leaves you with a lot of time! And so, I was fully prepared to confront those 28 hours…I had a phone with two seasons of...
Travelling alone from Jabalpur to Rajkot, which is 28 hour ride by train, and that too when your ticket is under RAC (you only have half of the seat) definitely leaves you with a lot of time!
And so, I was fully prepared to confront those 28 hours…I had a phone with two seasons of Lost, 3 movies, more than 1000 unsolved Kakuro and Sudoku puzzles, a fully charged 13000 mAh power bank, a charger, and quite a lot of songs, and of course a book on Sociology, which I knew I might not even open! And of course I planned on spending some quality time on whatsapp as it’s been long since I had a chat with many of my friends!
As the train started rolling, I arranged my luggage and stretched my legs on the seat (thankfully my co-passenger was supposed to board after 4-5 hours! Combination of heavy breakfast and nice air conditioning can make you sleep in minutes! But the problem with side lower berth is that anyone and everyone seem to have a license to come and sit there on the corners! And then with continuous movement of train and these bums…I mean their bums, within no time, they are the ones in comfortable position and by that time the high of heavy breakfast and air conditioning gets lost somewhere between cramped legs and shouting kids!
It didn’t take much time to realize that chatting in moving train can be a pain due to fluctuation in network. Well I still had a lot to do…I watched 2-3 episodes of Lost, and a movie, had my lunch, listened to few songs, solved 4 kakuro puzzles until my phone started screaming for mercy! After putting my phone on charging, I realized that Rajkot was still more than 20 hours away! It was a relief to have a charging point on my seat and a power bank at my disposal. With this very thought started the train of thoughts! To think of it…so much has changed over a period of time…!
Back in my school days…summer and winter vacations were the time to travel and train travel used to imply a reservation in sleeper class! At times when ticket did not get confirmed, travelling in general class was the alternate…although troublesome, but with a little persuasion and negotiation with the TT (or TC) it was still manageable! And now, even when the summers are yet to reach their peak, the thought of travelling in Sleeper is somehow scary…and in winters it’s definitely not an option as that would mean packing a blanket! Further, the concept of watching a movie or browsing internet during train journey was alien at that time. The only modes of killing time were chatting with actual people, eating peanuts, reading chacha choudhary and nagraj and maybe playing on handy videogame till the pencil cells lasted. Offcourse using rechargeable pencil cells was also not an option as there were no charging points in train! Also, one of the most important parts of pacing used to be selection of cassettes for Walkman! Now I don’t see nobody reading those comics or I don’t hear those monophonic sounds of clearing a stage! So much has changed!
But then, the kids still love jumping from one seat to another, and climbing to top berth is still a mission worth accomplishing for them. Still there are parents who give their piece of mind to those kids when they lose their peace of mind trying to keep a tab on movement of those kids! The wailing of these kids still resonates with the crying infants. Still there are people persuading and negotiating with TT for seats and ofcourse, I do have childhood memories of people first sitting at the corner and then slowly getting comfortable on my seat! People still get down at stations and bring back samosas and bread pakodas! And you can always find people standing near the door feeling the speed of train! So much is still the same!
Maybe things are still the same and it’s me who has changed with the journey of time and it’s this relative change which triggered this whole train of thoughts…or maybe it was just me getting bored!
Anyways! What matters is these thoughts have helped me kill three more hours and now it’s time for dinner and then I can continue watching Lost and playing kakuro!
Outside his apartment. Clueless and lost he stared into the sky for some answers. Life felt like a vicious circle!? Noraiz stuck the lonely face and breeze dried away his tears. Everything seemed to fall in place. All it took was… All it took was…A fresh epiphany, a deep breath and a click of trigger....
Outside his apartment. Clueless and lost he stared into the sky for some answers. Life felt like a vicious circle!?
Noraiz stuck the lonely face and breeze dried away his tears. Everything seemed to fall in place.
All it took was…
|All it took was…A fresh epiphany, a deep breath and a click of trigger.
Finally, ending his own path, his own life
A deep breath, click of a button and his only companion roared to life.
Once again, ready to travel his own path, his own life
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